Archive for December, 2008
Robert Parker on the 2009 Wine Market
In the current issue of the Wine Advocate (subscription required), Robert Parker offers his view on the 2009 wine market. It is worth excerpting at length:
The wine market is already going through a serious correction, the first major one since the early ‘70s. Keep in mind that top end wine has generally been recession proof over the last three decades, but that is changing dramatically. Auction sales are beginning to show less interest and lower prices. Retailers are buying very little. Wholesalers are feeling the squeeze as their inventories go unsold. Importers are reluctant to purchase new stocks. And this is just beginning to snowball. The wine trade is hoping the big holiday season buying by consumers will mitigate the carnage, but it will not. This crisis will only get worse over the near term, especially in the USA as we are in limbo politically until the end of January. It will be great to see lower wine prices, but there will be plenty of casualties. Small, high quality wineries, retailers, and importers with little liquidity will likely crash and burn. The result will be less and less competition as we see more and more consolidation (and that will be horrible). As wonderful as many of the following wines can be, the questions in December, 2008 are:
1. Who will continue to purchase Chardonnays over $50 a bottle, Pinot Noirs over $75, and Cabernet Sauvignon and Bordeaux varietal blends over $150?
2. With a great vintage, 2007, in the wings for northern California, especially for Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon, what will become of 2006?
3. Has the Pinot Noir bubble finally burst? Higher and higher prices, and generally mediocre quality except for the top four dozen or so producers, suggest that the days of reckoning are upon us.
4. In contrast, why can’t the ocean of very good Syrahs find favor with wine consumers? Probably the most consistent wine of high quality across all price levels, Syrah is being dumped by wholesalers and retailers unable to sell it. This may be the most inexplicable scenario in the domestic wine market given how good and reasonably priced most Syrahs tend to be.
Submitted without comment. Merry Christmas!
1 commentWine Mystery Revealed
Using photoelectrical and acoustic equipment, a German scientist has determined that Champagne corks can fly at 25 miles per hour. Now you know.
No commentsPeople Drink More When They Are Anxious
This report from Portfolio is interesting. I understand why liquor sales are up so much, and I am pleasantly surprised that wine sales are up (although I’m guessing those sales are at the plonk end of the market). But can someone explain to me why beer sales are down? Its friggin’ football season!
2 commentsDrunkenness is No Longer Fashionable
I really liked this post on the NYTs new blog on spirits, Proof. This passage has been tumbling around my brain:
Addiction specialists and scientists have identified three causes of most addictions: early trauma, genes, and environment. Still, addiction has eluded all attempts at a precise definition or a complete understanding. In most models, environment is thought to be the least of the three so-called causes. But maybe environment is the elephant in the room. In an environment where it is not attractive to get drunk, no one gets drunk.
I think this is spot on, and speaks to how we treat alcohol in America, vs, say, Europe. Here, we learn to drink by and large by binging (as opposed to with a half-glass of wine over dinner.). And, in varying degrees, we carry that behavior into adulthood. Then, at some point, we look up and realize we are the drunkest person at the party (attentive readers will hear the voice of experience here.), and decide, perhaps unconsciously, that we don’t want to be that person anymore.
2 commentsNo en primeur for 2009?
For decades, demand for top Bordeaux wines has been so high that wines from the most sought after producers have been sold, in essence, before they are made. These sales are called en primeur and the prices they bring have been rising sharply in the past few years, despite warnings that the increases were unsustainable. Now, according to Christian Moueix of Chateau Petrus (among others) we learn that the days of stratospheric en primeur sales are over:
‘The châteaux believe they are victims of the financial crisis, but they have orchestrated the problem [of excessive pricing],’ he said.
‘If négociant houses can’t buy or obtain lines of credit for their allocations, the wine will remain at the châteaux. And if there are not enough takers of allocations, there won’t be any en primeur sales.’
While Moueix’s comments have ignited a furore in Bordeaux, some merchants agree.
‘The fact that the quality is better than 2007, or that the yields were low, is absolutely of secondary importance this year. I don’t think there is one person in the distribution chain or a private buyer who cares,’ Laurent Ehrmann of négociant Barriere Frères told decanter.com.
Like speculative bubbles of all kinds, the Bordeaux bubble was bound to pop eventually. For consumers this is a good thing, as it means that on average, prices for wines from Bordeaux will fall. Unlike, say, a surplus of McMansions, there will still be demand for the top wines of Bordeaux. It just won’t be a frothy, rabid demand. The top producers will still sell out their vintages, the bottom ones will still send their wines to the distillery, and everyone will make less money.
2 commentsWine Has Calories Too
This alcoholic beverage calorie calculator from the BBC is kind of fun. Fortunately I like drinking wine more than I like eating danishes, jaffa cakes (what the hell is a jaffa cake) or doughnuts. Pizza though, that’s another matter.
2 commentsWine and Weed Prevent Memory Loss?
Via Fermentation, this is some seriously self-serving logic here:
Two new studies suggest that substances usually associated with dulling the mind — marijuana and red wine — may help ward off Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of age-related memory loss…in the Nov. 21 issue of the Journal of Biological Chemistry, neurologist David Teplow of the University of California, Los Angeles reported that polyphenols — naturally occurring components of red wine — block the formation of proteins that build the toxic plaques thought to destroy brain cells. In addition, these substances can reduce the toxicity of existing plaques, thus reducing cognitive deterioration…At Ohio State, researchers led by psychologist Gary Wenk are studying the protective effects of tetrahydrocannabinol, commonly known as THC. They found that administering a THC-like synthetic drug to older rats performed better at a memory test than a control group of non-medicated elderly rodents. In some of the rats, the drug apparently lowered inflammation in the hippocampus — the region of the brain responsible for short-term memory. It also seems to have stimulated the generation of new brain cells.
I want to believe this, I really do. But this doesn’t pass the sniff test (heh-heh). No one who has spent an appreciable amount of time around drunks and dopers could believe that using marijuana and alcohol improves memory. (They call it ‘dope’ for a reason.)
Now as it stands, I don’t really care whether people drink lots of red wine (better than cheap vodka) or smoke lots of pot (also better than cheap vodka). But I find it a little amusing that legions of buzzed folks will latch onto these studies as an ex post facto justification for behavior they were happy to engage in when it was bad for you because they like the way it makes them feel.
2 commentsFrench Press Slams 2008 Vintage
Apparently Le Monde and Le Figaro think 2008 is going to be a crap vintage in France:
In articles published late last week, both Le Monde and Le Figaro painted a bleak picture of this year’s wines, the latter saying 2008 ‘promised neither quality nor quantity’.
A similarly negative Le Monde said its readers ‘should not expect answers [from winemakers] when all the conditions that go in to making a great vintage do not come together’.
So what? The fact is that good producers who take care of their vines produce good wines, even in bad years. And reports of a bad vintage in Champagne are basically pointless, as most Champagne is made from a blend of multiple vintages (specifically to avoid the vagaries of weather in a given year.)
IMO, this will be a boon for consumers as the reports of a ‘bad vintage’ will cut down on the number of gratuitously overpriced wines. I fully expect that 3 years from now when the 2008s have hit the market in earnest that we will be hearing how unexpected the quality of the wines are from wine writers who are currently panning the vintage.
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